Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

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Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Penny <3 Aristicus on Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:12 pm

I have learned that only 20% of the buds that exist are circulating via trading. The rest of them are either just in a longtime AFK backpack, or with someone that doesn't know how much they're worth........ Imagine how much they would be if ALL of me were out and about. What do you think would happen, and how buds would be if that other 80% was in trading as well?
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Falmez on Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:52 pm

the prices might go down? i dont know i suck at trading.
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by LIGHƬΔΓΓΘШЅ.exe on Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:52 pm

If only 20% of the buds are selling, that means about 10000 buds are currently in active backpacks. I think the price will lower if the supply is low, but then again, we are talking about 10000 buds. That's still quite a lot, no matter how you look at it.

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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Penny <3 Aristicus on Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:58 pm

It is :3
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Knightmare on Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:20 pm

First of all, you must know why buds are valuable.  Even though you might say that they are valuable because they are simply a misc promo that can no longer be obtained, there are actually dozens of unobtained misc promos in the market that are worth next to nothing.  So what makes the buds valuable?

The answer is that the bud is simply an example of virtual fiat money.  Like real world paper money, they are valuable simply because the community says so and accepts it as so.  You have grown up seeing real paper money being used in transactions, so you assume that they are valuable, but if you think about it, they are just paper, so what actually made them so valuable?  The history of how fiat money, like paper money, was created is to remove the inefficient barter system.  If you want to learn more about that, you can google barter vs fiat money.   Now, what would happen if suddenly, the community for some reason no longer considers paper money as valuable, but simply a piece of paper? Then paper money will have lost its value apart from it's paper value.
 
The same can be said for buds, and for some time, Bill's Hats, before it lost its fiat money, aka currency status half a year ago.  For those that are wondering, the only non-flat money currency in TF2 is the TF2 Keys.

Now, if we imagine that suddenly, all of the unused buds in players' backpacks are now circulated in trading, that is like taking those buds away from the inactive players' backpacks and injecting them into the market all at once.    This is an example of inflation of fiat money, which means that the prices of buds will drop relative to non-fiat money, which is the keys.  

However, in the above assumption we assumed that all of the unused buds were injected into the market at once.  This is not going to happen unless Valve decides to give out free buds once again.  

If we instead assume that the buds will be injected into the market at a logarithmic rate, which is what is really happening, then the prices of buds will not change, as the effect of increased bud supply is reduced with the passing of time (as a real world example, the government prints new paper money everyday, but because they print it at a steady rate and not all at once, the inflation is constant, and thus in effect the inflation can be ignored outright from year to year).

If you want to know how the unused buds are entering the market at a logarithmic rate, it is because of sharkers like Sekai.
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Sekai on Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:07 am

Knightmare wrote:First of all, you must know why buds are valuable.  Even though you might say that they are valuable because they are simply a misc promo that can no longer be obtained, there are actually dozens of unobtained misc promos in the market that are worth next to nothing.  So what makes the buds valuable?

The answer is that the bud is simply an example of virtual fiat money.  Like real world paper money, they are valuable simply because the community says so and accepts it as so.  You have grown up seeing real paper money being used in transactions, so you assume that they are valuable, but if you think about it, they are just paper, so what actually made them so valuable?  The history of how fiat money, like paper money, was created is to remove the inefficient barter system.  If you want to learn more about that, you can google barter vs fiat money.   Now, what would happen if suddenly, the community for some reason no longer considers paper money as valuable, but simply a piece of paper? Then paper money will have lost its value apart from it's paper value.
 
The same can be said for buds, and for some time, Bill's Hats, before it lost its fiat money, aka currency status half a year ago.  For those that are wondering, the only non-flat money currency in TF2 is the TF2 Keys.

Now, if we imagine that suddenly, all of the unused buds in players' backpacks are now circulated in trading, that is like taking those buds away from the inactive players' backpacks and injecting them into the market all at once.    This is an example of inflation of fiat money, which means that the prices of buds will drop relative to non-fiat money, which is the keys.  

However, in the above assumption we assumed that all of the unused buds were injected into the market at once.  This is not going to happen unless Valve decides to give out free buds once again.  

If we instead assume that the buds will be injected into the market at a logarithmic rate, which is what is really happening, then the prices of buds will not change, as the effect of increased bud supply is reduced with the passing of time (as a real world example, the government prints new paper money everyday, but because they print it at a steady rate and not all at once, the inflation is constant, and thus in effect the inflation can be ignored outright from year to year).

If you want to know how the unused buds are entering the market at a logarithmic rate, it is because of sharkers like Sekai.

because of sharkers like Sekai... thanks, I guess.
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Sekai on Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:03 am

Knightmare wrote:First of all, you must know why buds are valuable.  Even though you might say that they are valuable because they are simply a misc promo that can no longer be obtained, there are actually dozens of unobtained misc promos in the market that are worth next to nothing.  So what makes the buds valuable?

The answer is that the bud is simply an example of virtual fiat money.  Like real world paper money, they are valuable simply because the community says so and accepts it as so.  You have grown up seeing real paper money being used in transactions, so you assume that they are valuable, but if you think about it, they are just paper, so what actually made them so valuable?  The history of how fiat money, like paper money, was created is to remove the inefficient barter system.  If you want to learn more about that, you can google barter vs fiat money.   Now, what would happen if suddenly, the community for some reason no longer considers paper money as valuable, but simply a piece of paper? Then paper money will have lost its value apart from it's paper value.
 
The same can be said for buds, and for some time, Bill's Hats, before it lost its fiat money, aka currency status half a year ago.  For those that are wondering, the only non-flat money currency in TF2 is the TF2 Keys.

Now, if we imagine that suddenly, all of the unused buds in players' backpacks are now circulated in trading, that is like taking those buds away from the inactive players' backpacks and injecting them into the market all at once.    This is an example of inflation of fiat money, which means that the prices of buds will drop relative to non-fiat money, which is the keys.  

However, in the above assumption we assumed that all of the unused buds were injected into the market at once.  This is not going to happen unless Valve decides to give out free buds once again.  

If we instead assume that the buds will be injected into the market at a logarithmic rate, which is what is really happening, then the prices of buds will not change, as the effect of increased bud supply is reduced with the passing of time (as a real world example, the government prints new paper money everyday, but because they print it at a steady rate and not all at once, the inflation is constant, and thus in effect the inflation can be ignored outright from year to year).

If you want to know how the unused buds are entering the market at a logarithmic rate, it is because of sharkers like Sekai.

Also I'm disappointed in you... the real world example you gave is unrelated to the theory you are proving. Inflation can be generally ignored by consumers year to year because their wages are adjusted by inflation, not because the inflation rate is steady from year to year. The actual reason of why prices of buds won't change even though the supply of buds is increasing slowly is because most TF2 traders do not know that new buds are slowly entering the market, and cannot sense it (we can't sense money being printed everyday just from interacting in the market).

Knightmare, you should know better Wink
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Falmez on Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:18 am

Sekai wrote:
Knightmare wrote:First of all, you must know why buds are valuable.  Even though you might say that they are valuable because they are simply a misc promo that can no longer be obtained, there are actually dozens of unobtained misc promos in the market that are worth next to nothing.  So what makes the buds valuable?

The answer is that the bud is simply an example of virtual fiat money.  Like real world paper money, they are valuable simply because the community says so and accepts it as so.  You have grown up seeing real paper money being used in transactions, so you assume that they are valuable, but if you think about it, they are just paper, so what actually made them so valuable?  The history of how fiat money, like paper money, was created is to remove the inefficient barter system.  If you want to learn more about that, you can google barter vs fiat money.   Now, what would happen if suddenly, the community for some reason no longer considers paper money as valuable, but simply a piece of paper? Then paper money will have lost its value apart from it's paper value.
 
The same can be said for buds, and for some time, Bill's Hats, before it lost its fiat money, aka currency status half a year ago.  For those that are wondering, the only non-flat money currency in TF2 is the TF2 Keys.

Now, if we imagine that suddenly, all of the unused buds in players' backpacks are now circulated in trading, that is like taking those buds away from the inactive players' backpacks and injecting them into the market all at once.    This is an example of inflation of fiat money, which means that the prices of buds will drop relative to non-fiat money, which is the keys.  

However, in the above assumption we assumed that all of the unused buds were injected into the market at once.  This is not going to happen unless Valve decides to give out free buds once again.  

If we instead assume that the buds will be injected into the market at a logarithmic rate, which is what is really happening, then the prices of buds will not change, as the effect of increased bud supply is reduced with the passing of time (as a real world example, the government prints new paper money everyday, but because they print it at a steady rate and not all at once, the inflation is constant, and thus in effect the inflation can be ignored outright from year to year).

If you want to know how the unused buds are entering the market at a logarithmic rate, it is because of sharkers like Sekai.

Also I'm disappointed in you... the real world example you gave is unrelated to the theory you are proving.  Inflation can be generally ignored by consumers year to year because their wages are adjusted by inflation, not because the inflation rate is steady from year to year.   The actual reason of why prices of buds won't change even though the supply of buds is increasing slowly is because most TF2 traders do not know that new buds are slowly entering the market, and cannot sense it (we can't sense money being printed everyday just from interacting in the market).  

Knightmare, you should know better Wink

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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Penny <3 Aristicus on Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:58 am

Sekai wrote:
Knightmare wrote:First of all, you must know why buds are valuable.  Even though you might say that they are valuable because they are simply a misc promo that can no longer be obtained, there are actually dozens of unobtained misc promos in the market that are worth next to nothing.  So what makes the buds valuable?

The answer is that the bud is simply an example of virtual fiat money.  Like real world paper money, they are valuable simply because the community says so and accepts it as so.  You have grown up seeing real paper money being used in transactions, so you assume that they are valuable, but if you think about it, they are just paper, so what actually made them so valuable?  The history of how fiat money, like paper money, was created is to remove the inefficient barter system.  If you want to learn more about that, you can google barter vs fiat money.   Now, what would happen if suddenly, the community for some reason no longer considers paper money as valuable, but simply a piece of paper? Then paper money will have lost its value apart from it's paper value.
 
The same can be said for buds, and for some time, Bill's Hats, before it lost its fiat money, aka currency status half a year ago.  For those that are wondering, the only non-flat money currency in TF2 is the TF2 Keys.

Now, if we imagine that suddenly, all of the unused buds in players' backpacks are now circulated in trading, that is like taking those buds away from the inactive players' backpacks and injecting them into the market all at once.    This is an example of inflation of fiat money, which means that the prices of buds will drop relative to non-fiat money, which is the keys.  

However, in the above assumption we assumed that all of the unused buds were injected into the market at once.  This is not going to happen unless Valve decides to give out free buds once again.  

If we instead assume that the buds will be injected into the market at a logarithmic rate, which is what is really happening, then the prices of buds will not change, as the effect of increased bud supply is reduced with the passing of time (as a real world example, the government prints new paper money everyday, but because they print it at a steady rate and not all at once, the inflation is constant, and thus in effect the inflation can be ignored outright from year to year).

If you want to know how the unused buds are entering the market at a logarithmic rate, it is because of sharkers like Sekai.

because of sharkers like Sekai... thanks, I guess.



hmm.... I'm not sure if getting sharked by Sekai is a bad thing, or an honor. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Sekai on Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:20 pm

haha, unfortunately I don't trade anymore.
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by LIGHƬΔΓΓΘШЅ.exe on Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:44 pm

I still trade often, but only if I'm trying to get my hands on something.

I hate how people immediately add you instead of sending a trade offer. Guess a lot of people can't read text saying I don't accept friend requests anymore! on someone's profile.

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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by SgtDropBear on Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:02 am

Sekai a sharker? O.o
So THIS is how the 9001 giveaways are funded every day! All is explained and I can finally relax. I guess it is necessary so all is okay. xD
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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Sekai on Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:56 am

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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

Post by Unity on Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:12 pm

This is already considered old news Bear. Sekai got trade banned after being reported for being a "Professional Sharker". Some people just couldn't take jokes. And yes, Sekai's point is very valid... Trades are made with the main intention of making some $ in the process. So technically, 99% of all trades are considered "sharking".

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Re: Something (Kinda) Mindblowing

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